Kenya's Climate Change Status

Current Climate Change Status by Ouma John, Director Climate Change, Waka Africa Organization

The current state of pollution in Kenya

Kenya’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are low at less than 1 tonne per person, less than 100 million tonnes of CO2 in a year, of which a third is due to deforestation. These GHGs are less than 0.1% of the global GHGs annually (Dreyer, 2021). Although more than 81% of Kenya's electricity is hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar-generated ( Kenya—Energy-Electrical Power Systems, 2022), its reliability, often from droughts and famines, has led some manufacturing firms to generate supplementary power using diesel generators.


Extreme weather and pastoralism

Pastoralism accounts for 90% of youth employment and provides more than 95% of rural families with income in the drylands of Northern Kenya. The counties in the Northern part of Kenya include; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Turkana, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, West Pokot, Baringo, and Wajir.

As of November 2022, Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) confirmed that the country had lost 2.5 million heads of livestock, with the remaining 10 million heads in the dryland suffering without pasture and water (Mokku, 2023). The drought is also said to have killed 205 elephants, as the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) says. During the drought, the country lost 512 gnus, 381 zebras, 12 giraffes, and 51 buffaloes. In other instances, the climate change crisis has caused ecological conflict between humans and animals, such as lions and elephants, as they roam searching for water and food. The death of wild animals threatens Kenya's tourism sector. Unfortunately, there are projections that the effects on biodiversity will intensify, with some species likely to be wiped off the face of the earth. Potable water, land, and ocean ecosystems are also expected to be heavily impacted by climate change. This observation shows the need for the rich nations to reduce their greenhouse emissions and support the poor populations to strengthen their resilience and adaptation.

Trends in temperature and weather

Between 1977 and 204, there has been an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall in Kenya's Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) areas which constitute 80% of the country’s landmass (World et al.). The high dependency on climate-sensitive revenue-generating activities like pastoralism and 98% rain-fed agriculture accounts for 34% of Kenya’s GDP and provides subsistence to 60% of the population (Eichsteller et al., 2022). Furthermore, tropical cyclones have also created good conditions that support the breeding of insects and pests, as was the case of locusts in Kenya and the rest of East African countries in early 2020.

Climate Change in Kenya

· The Sea level rose by 5.8 cm from 1932–2001 (Mombasa).

· Kenya has experienced an average temperature increase of 0.34°C per decade from the 1985–2015 period, with the greatest increases occurring from March to May and in arid and semi-arid regions (Climate risk profile Kenya, n.d.).

· There has been little change in average annual precipitation, but there have been substantial declines in the long rains in Central Kenya since the 1970s, and possible increased rainfall in the North and decreased rainfall in the South.

· Glacial volume loss of more than 66 per cent in the last 100 years; Lewis Glacier (Mount Kenya) has lost 90 per cent of its volume since 1934 (Admin, 2017).

The Future of climate change in Kenya

· The projected changes by the 2050s include:

· Increase average temperatures of 1.2–2.2oC, with warming greatest in the west—increased duration (+9–30 days) of heat waves.

· There is a likely increase in average rainfall (projections range from -3 to +28 per cent), mainly from October to May and in the coast and highlands.

· Increased interseasonal rainfall variability.

· Increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events.

· There is also a likely decrease in the duration of dry spells but an increase in severity (-2 to +27 per cent).

· Rise in sea levels of 16–42 cm.

· The sea level is expected to rise by 30cm, estimated to affect 17% (4,600 hectares) of Mombasa (Kebede et al., 2012).

Kenya's renewable energy sector is driven by a good mix of renewable sources of energy such as geothermal, wind, hydro, and some utility-scale solar power. Kenya ranks among the world's top ten countries in generating electricity from geothermal power, generating about 1GW of power (EIB et al.). This initiative aligns with the country's commitment to the world's climate action, given its national ambition to deliver on the Paris Agreement. The European Investment Bank (EIB) has partnered with the Kenyan government and private sectors to promote the global transition to green energy, especially in the transport and industrial sectors. This initiative can be seen with the commissioning of the sixth unit at Olkaria geothermal plant supported by EIB. Through its Climate Bank Roadmap, the EIB is to support €1 trillion of climate action and environmental sustainability investments in the decade before 2030 and to dedicate more than 50% of EIB funding to climate action and environmental sustainability by 2025 (EIB et al.).

Through Power Africa, the USAID has been able to develop and commission 691 MW of clean power generation in Kenya, including the 310 MW Lake Turkana Wind Power project, the 158 MW Olkaria V Geothermal Power plant, the 83 MW Olkaria I Unit 6 Geothermal Power Plant, the 100 MW Kipeto Wind Power Project, and the 40 MW Malindi Solar PV Power Project (Kenya Climate Change Country Profile | Fact Sheet | Africa, 2023). The study also reveals that USAID has partnered with the private sector, the local governments, and the indigenous communities to improve the protection of critical forests that act as water catchment areas by strengthening land management.

Economic Impacts of climate change

Unlike international standards that suggest that 1,000 m3 of water should be available for every person, only 586 m3 was available in 2010, which may fall to 293 m3 by 2050 (Kenya: Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015). The shrinking amount of glaciers atop Mt. Kenya further exacerbate the water crisis causing some rivers that once flowed throughout the year to become seasonal. It is worrying that Kenya's forest cover is only 7.4% of its land (Ndiso, 2018). Unfortunately, in the 1990-2015 period, 824,115 hectares of forest cover (25%) were lost, translating to 33,000 hectares of forest land per year (State of Forests in Kenya, n.d.). These events affect biodiversity, which subsequently affects the tourism sector. The 2008-2011 drought already led to about US$12.1 billion in damage (Kenya’s pastoralists protect assets from drought risk with financial protection, 2018). Moreover, the 2014-2022 droughts have caused food insecurity that has affected about 3.4 million people, with 2018 alone obscuring at least 500,000 people from accessing potable water. The climate crisis is forecasted to cause economic losses of up to 2.6% of GDP by 2030 (Economics of Climate Change in Kenya: Evidence from Sectoral Studies - IEA Kenya, 2023).

Agriculture and animals

For instance, there has been a 26.5% decline in cattle from 1977 to 2016, with a 76% increase in the sheep and goats, whereas the camels increased by 13.3%. Climate change is projected to cause a loss of 52% of ASAL's cattle population (1.7 million), valued at US$ 340-680 million.


Manufacturing

The manufacturing sector accounts for 10% of Kenya's GDP as of 2010 and employed at least 13% of the formal sector labour in 2012, with an output of about Ksh. 1 trillion in 2014 (The Crucial Role Played by the Manufacturing Sector in Kenya - Soko Directory, 2015). The sector consumes 60% of Kenya’s electricity and emits approximately 10% of GHGs (Climate Change and the Energy and Manufacturing Sector, 2014). However, Kenya's National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) connotes that climate change events like reduced rainfall and severe droughts lead to fluctuations in energy occasioned by blackouts and power rationing, which affects industrial operations. Disasters like heatwaves and floods may damage the infrastructure, thus disrupting supply chains and increasing production costs, attracting high insurance premiums.

Health impacts

Extreme climates, like floods in warmer environments, increase the survivability of vectors like the female anopheles’ mosquitoes. For instance, malaria is responsible for the deaths of 5% of children below 5 years, and the disease is expected to affect 83 million people yearly by 2070 (Climate And Health Country Profile 2015 Kenya, 2016). Similarly, dengue fever is also forecasted to increase by 2070. The heat-stress mortality is projected to increase from 2 per 100,000 yearly as of 1990 to 45 persons per year by 2080, but this could be reduced to 7 persons yearly in a low-emission case scenario Climate And Health Country Profile 2015 Kenya, 2016). In a high-emission scenario, climate change is projected to increase diarrhoea, causing about 9% of diarrhoea-related deaths among children under 15 years by 2030, which will increase to 13% by 2050. Malnutrition is also expected to increase by 20% by 2050. This revelation is quite chilling given that among all the children under five, 35.2% are stunted, 16.4% are underweight, and 7.0% are wasting.

Addressing climate change

Severe natural disasters such as droughts, famine, floods, and locust invasions have been linked to climate change. Researchers approximate that mitigation, adaptation, and compensation for loss and damage from climate change is about US$ 580 billion, which will increase to as high as US$ 1.8 trillion by 2050.

Although wealthy nations and their mega-corporations account for most of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, African countries suffer disproportionately from the effects of climate change. The impact is even more severe among the poor populations. Although third-world countries get foreign aid from wealthy nations to tackle climate change, there is a need to build social protections and resilience-building schemes for Kenya's growing poor population. The country governments could prioritize the youths from poor neighbourhoods to participate in tree planting in dryland areas, town cleaning and waste segregation exercises. Echoing the statements of His Excellency the president of Kenya, Dr William Samoei Ruto, “As we look forward to COP28, the expectation is that countries, particularly industrialized countries, fulfil their commitments and accelerate efforts to address loss and damage." However, governments must also manage the revenue generated from carbon taxations to empower the poor communities affected by climate change.

Policies and legislation

The major components of the government’s institutional framework tasked with the day-to-day building of climate resilience include the National Climate Change Activities Coordinating Committee, The National Environmental Management Authority through the Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources (MEMR), and the Kenya Meteorological Department in the Ministry of Transport (Climate et al. in KENYA, n.d.) The policies can be traced back to 2010 when the Kenyan government published the National Climate Change Response Strategy to help the government implement robust measures necessary to address the challenges posed by climate change (Kenya National Climate Change Response Strategy | Green Growth Knowledge Partnership, 2010). Further, the Climate Change Act of 2016 established a National Climate Change Council chaired by the president of Kenya to oversee the development, management, implementation, and regulation of mechanisms to enhance climate change resilience and low-carbon development for the sustainable development of Kenya. Also, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) was implemented in 2015 to improve climate resilience (Chaudhury et al., 2020). NAP contains the Adaptation Technical Analysis Report (ATAR), which examines sectoral economic vulnerabilities, identifies adaptation needs and suggests potential adaptation actions in different counties (FAO.Org?: n.d.). NAP also supports the development of local County Integrated Development Plans (CIPDs), which include the establishment of County Climate Change Funds (CCCFs) (Chaudhury et al., 2020). The National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2018-2022) is aligned with the Climate Change Action Plan 2013-2017 and focuses on adaptation and mitigation measures that the country must adopt to achieve development with a low carbon climate (National et al. Plan 2018-2022 (NCCAP) - Climate Change Laws of the World, 2018). In Kenya, NEMA is the country's authority accredited to international climate financings organizations such as the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund. The president also underscored the role of wind turbines and solar panels in an expedited shift to cleaner energy (Stancil, 2022).

Society and culture

About 46% (44 million people) of Kenya's population will live in urban centres by 2050 (Urban Planning for City Leaders: A Handbook for Kenya | UN-Habitat, 2018). Unfortunately, many cities are not prepared for the impact exerted on them by population growth. For example, the increasing population of those living in informal settlements is worrying as they are exposed to heat, flooding and scarcity of water. The consequences of climate change have already affected marginalized communities, women, and youth. For example, among the arid and semi-arid communities like Samburu and the Maasai, the men take the cattle, goats, sheep, and camels away from their homesteads for fresh pasture and water (Kime, 2013). As the dry seasons begin earlier and last longer than usual, the men stay away from homes longer than usual, making it harder for the women and children they left behind to feed themselves with the animals gone. Given that the ASAL areas are home to 38% of Kenyans and account for 12% of the country’s GDP, climate change threatens to maintain the poverty level in those regions, which is already at more than 80% (Climate Risk Profile Kenya, n.d.).

Therefore, there is a need to plan, design, finance, and implement strategies to ensure sustainable urban development, which revolves around land use and urban form, affordable housing, mobility, water supply, energy, waste management, social and economic development, parks and open spaces, environmental management, community amenities, safety, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and urban governance among others.

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